Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
